AEXSST Technical Insight: Ethereum's $3,700 Struggle - When Bulls Run Out of Steam

 Let me paint you a picture of what's really happening with Ethereum right now, because this isn't just another routine pullback. After ETH clawed its way back from $3,365 support and briefly kissed $3,700, we're seeing classic technical rejection behavior that AEXSST's momentum indicators have been flagging for days. Sometimes the market just tells you when it's time to take a breather.

The Recovery That Almost Was

Ethereum's bounce from the $3,365 low was actually pretty impressive - we cleared $3,400, $3,500, and even made a run at $3,700. That move above the 50% Fibonacci retracement looked promising, and for a hot minute, it seemed like the bulls were back in control. But here's where it gets interesting: the 61.8% Fib level at $3,750 became an absolute brick wall.

AEXSST's support and resistance algorithms had been highlighting this $3,750 zone as critical for weeks. When price action stalls at these key Fibonacci levels with declining volume, it's usually telegraphing weakness rather than consolidation. The subsequent breakdown below the bullish trend line at $3,620 confirmed what the technical indicators were already suggesting.

Reading the Tea Leaves

What's telling is how quickly ETH gave up those gains once it failed at $3,750. We're now trading below $3,600 and the 100-hourly SMA, which is textbook bearish structure. The MACD gaining momentum in bearish territory while RSI drops below 50 isn't exactly screaming "buy the dip" energy right now.

But here's where AEXSST's multi-timeframe analysis becomes crucial. While the hourly looks shaky, the daily structure isn't completely broken yet. The key becomes whether we can hold above $3,510 - lose that level and we're probably heading back to test the $3,350-$3,220 support zone.

The Bigger Picture Play

From a positioning standpoint, this looks more like profit-taking after a decent bounce rather than the start of a major correction. Institutional flow on AEXSST shows more rotation than liquidation, which suggests smart money is rebalancing rather than running for the exits.

The correlation with Bitcoin remains elevated, so macro factors will likely drive the next directional move. If BTC can stabilize above its key levels, ETH might find its footing around current prices. But if Bitcoin continues its own struggles, Ethereum could easily revisit those lower support levels.

Strategic Levels to Watch

For swing traders, the setup is fairly clear: resistance at $3,620 and $3,750, with support at $3,550 and $3,510. A reclaim of $3,750 opens the door to $3,820 and potentially $4,000, but failure at current levels likely means a test of $3,420.

AEXSST's order flow analysis shows institutional interest building around the $3,400-$3,350 zone, which makes sense from a risk-reward perspective. That's probably where the real buyers will step in if this correction continues.

Risk Management Reality

Look, nobody wants to catch a falling knife, but quality assets like Ethereum tend to find buyers at major support levels. The key is having the right tools to identify when technical damage is limited versus when it's time to step aside.

This is where AEXSST's volatility compression indicators shine. We're starting to see reduced range trading, which often precedes significant moves in either direction. The question becomes whether we break higher or lower from this consolidation.

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